{"id":1689,"date":"2011-09-15T10:45:29","date_gmt":"2011-09-15T14:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.multiplier-effect.org\/?p=1689"},"modified":"2011-09-15T10:45:29","modified_gmt":"2011-09-15T14:45:29","slug":"a-graphical-play-in-three-acts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/a-graphical-play-in-three-acts\/","title":{"rendered":"A Graphical Play in Three Acts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since graphical information manages to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dartmouth.edu\/%7Enyhan\/opening-political-mind.pdf\">fail less spectacularly<\/a> at getting people to change their minds, here are three graphs; one addressing what we ought (not) to do, one addressing what we are doing, and the other what we can do.<\/p>\n<p>The first comes from the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/fandd\/2011\/09\/Ball.htm\">IMF<\/a>, compiling 30 years of evidence showing that fiscal contraction reduces both employment and incomes:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/IMF_Fiscal-Contraction.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1690\" title=\"IMF_Fiscal Contraction\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/IMF_Fiscal-Contraction.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"360\" height=\"382\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/IMF_Fiscal-Contraction.gif 360w, https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/IMF_Fiscal-Contraction-282x300.gif 282w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 360px) 100vw, 360px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The second is a graph of changes in government purchases of goods and services in the US, showing dramatic fiscal contraction in a very crucial part of government spending:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/FRED_Chng-Govt-Purchases-All-Levels.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1691\" title=\"FRED_Chng Govt Purchases All Levels\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/FRED_Chng-Govt-Purchases-All-Levels.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"378\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/FRED_Chng-Govt-Purchases-All-Levels.png 630w, https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/FRED_Chng-Govt-Purchases-All-Levels-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The third is a graph of the real rates on 5-year Treasuries, showing that the federal government can borrow at <em>negative <\/em>real rates to reverse the above fiscal contraction:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/FRED_5yr-real-yield_bble.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1692\" title=\"FRED_5yr real yield_bble\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/FRED_5yr-real-yield_bble.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"378\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/FRED_5yr-real-yield_bble.png 630w, https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/files\/2011\/09\/FRED_5yr-real-yield_bble-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I\u2019d like to say more, but the research suggests that doing so in non-graphical form might be counterproductive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since graphical information manages to fail less spectacularly at getting people to change their minds, here are three graphs; one addressing what we ought (not) to do, one addressing what we are doing, and the other what we can do. The first comes from the IMF, compiling 30 years of evidence showing that fiscal contraction [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":202,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-employment","category-fiscal-policy"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/202"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1689"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1689\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1702,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1689\/revisions\/1702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}