{"id":11806,"date":"2015-02-28T10:07:29","date_gmt":"2015-02-28T15:07:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/multiplier-effect.org\/?p=11806"},"modified":"2015-02-28T10:11:02","modified_gmt":"2015-02-28T15:11:02","slug":"galbraith-and-krugman-on-the-greek-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/galbraith-and-krugman-on-the-greek-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Galbraith and Krugman on the Greek Deal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If you haven&#8217;t read it already, Senior Scholar James Galbraith shared\u00a0his take on the four-month Greek deal in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.socialeurope.eu\/2015\/02\/greek-deal\">Social Europe<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>there was never any chance for a loan agreement that would have wholly freed Greece\u2019s hands. Loan agreements come with conditions. The only choices were an agreement with conditions, or no agreement and no conditions. The choice had to be made by February 28, beyond which date ECB support for the Greek banks would end. No agreement would have meant capital controls, or else bank failures, debt default, and early exit from the Euro. SYRIZA was not elected to take Greece out of Europe. Hence, in order to meet electoral commitments<em>,<\/em> the relationship between Athens and Europe had to be \u201cextended\u201d in some way acceptable to both.<\/p>\n<p>But extend what, exactly? There were two phrases at play, and neither was the vague \u201cextend the bailout.\u201d The phrase \u201cextend the current programme\u201d appeared in troika documents, implying acceptance of the existing terms and conditions. To the Greeks this was unacceptable, but the technically-more-correct \u201cextend the loan agreement\u201d was less problematic. The final document extends the \u201cMaster Financial Assistance Facility Agreement\u201d which was better still. The MFFA is \u201cunderpinned by a set of commitments\u201d but these are \u2013 technically \u2013 distinct. In short, the MFFA is extended but the commitments are to be reviewed.<\/p>\n<p>[&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p>If you think you can find an unwavering commitment to the exact terms and conditions of the \u201ccurrent programme\u201d in that language, good luck to you. It isn\u2019t there. So, no, the troika can\u2019t come to Athens and complain about the rehiring of cleaning ladies.<\/p>\n<p>[&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p>Greece won a battle \u2013 perhaps a skirmish \u2013 and the war continues. But the political sea-change that SYRIZA\u2019s victory has sparked goes on.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Galbraith was recently interviewed by RNN&#8217;s Sharmini Peries on the same topic:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<!-- iframe plugin v.6.0 wordpress.org\/plugins\/iframe\/ -->\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"448\" height=\"252\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/O-oiHYPQELM?feature=player_embedded\" frameborder=\"0\" 0=\"allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;\/iframe\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\"><\/iframe>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Coming from a different direction, John Quiggin\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/crookedtimber.org\/2015\/02\/24\/who-blinked\/\">arrives<\/a> at a similar conclusion:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The Greeks wanted continued EU support, and an end to the Troika\u2019s austerity program. The Troika (at least as represented by German Finance Minister Schauble) wanted Syriza to abandon its election program and continue with the existing ND\/Pasok policy of capitulation to the Troika.<\/p>\n<p>Put that way, I think it\u2019s clear that the Troika blinked. The new agreement allows Syriza to replace the Troika\u2019s austerity program with a set of reforms of its choice, focusing on things like tax evasion. Most of Syriza\u2019s election platform remains intact. Of course, it\u2019s only for four months, and none of the big issues has been resolved. But four months takes us most of the way to the next Spanish election campaign, hardly an opportune time to contemplate expelling a debtor country from the eurozone with utterly unpredictable consequences.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>But as Paul Krugman <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCAQqQIwAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2015%2F02%2F27%2Fopinion%2Fpaul-krugman-what-greece-won.html&amp;ei=mOvwVKbzNIy-ggSi2oCYCQ&amp;usg=AFQjCNEjXc7HUt7tx8gGTq_HJrf5HRKpmQ&amp;sig2=K6WtZ1IyN296skvqJux88w&amp;bvm=bv.87269000,d.eXY\">observes<\/a>, many in the media\u00a0rushed to adopt a much less nuanced narrative, in which Greece\u00a0suffered total defeat in the negotiations:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>So did the current Greek government back down and agree to aim for those economy-busting surpluses? No, it didn\u2019t. In fact, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2015\/02\/150220-eurogroup-statement-greece\/\">Greece won new flexibility for this year<\/a>, and the language about future surpluses was obscure. It could mean anything or nothing.<\/p>\n<p>[&#8230;] nothing that just happened justifies the pervasive rhetoric of failure. Actually, <strong>my sense is that we\u2019re seeing an unholy alliance here between left-leaning writers with unrealistic expectations and the business press, which likes the story of Greek debacle because that\u2019s what is supposed to happen to uppity debtors<\/strong>. But there was no debacle. Provisionally, at least, Greece seems to have ended the cycle of ever-more-savage austerity.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you haven&#8217;t read it already, Senior Scholar James Galbraith shared\u00a0his take on the four-month Greek deal in Social Europe: there was never any chance for a loan agreement that would have wholly freed Greece\u2019s hands. Loan agreements come with conditions. The only choices were an agreement with conditions, or no agreement and no conditions. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":202,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[141,21,94,19,164,1009,326,498],"class_list":["post-11806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-eurozone-crisis","tag-austerity","tag-bailout","tag-germany","tag-greece","tag-james-galbraith","tag-negotiation","tag-paul-krugman","tag-syriza"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/202"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11806"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11806\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11840,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11806\/revisions\/11840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bard.edu\/multiplier-effect\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}